KnightoftheHokeyPokey

67 Decks, 2,598 Comments, 630 Reputation

Agreed. Plus it's flavor text is pretty cool.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 23:50 in reply to #465272 on Budget Decks: Wolf-Boyz

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Good policy! Pentarch Paladin did that to me a while ago ...

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 23:49 in reply to #465254 on self destructive behaviour

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Hmmm ... there are plenty of low-CMC boros creatures. You might want a Goblin legionaire, or Wojek Halberdiers. I suggest Nav-Squad Commandos in stormbreath's place. If you want to shorten a game, Aurelia's fury is pretty awesome.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 23:47 in reply to #465193 on FNM Burn

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I would keep myself alive through some lifelink humans, walls, and angelic accord. With some lifegain this card is way better than entreat the angels, which is more of a late game card. You desperately need some one and two drops- as I said, I prefer lifelink, but it's up to you. Angels are late- to mid-game finishers, and therefore are very tricky to make a tribal deck of.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 17:44 in reply to #465221 on Creature Challenge #3 Angels

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I just took a statistics class, and couldn't resist. If you want to waste a lot of time, you can add up the probabilities of the 35 trials. I assumed that distribution to be normal, when in fact it is scewed towards the lower probabilities as a result of the dependent trials.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 17:05 in reply to #465212 on First turn Mill...oh yeah.

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Statistics does not easily apply to the situation. Since the sample size (7 cards in hand) is greater than 10% of the population (60 cards in deck), the events are dependent (sampling without replacement leads to dependent outcomes in cases where the sample size is greater than 5% of the population), and therefore the probability of success is not constant between trials.

Due to this, we can not use a binomial distribution nor any procedure involving the sampling distribution of a sample proportion.While there exist methods for computing statistical probabilities in this situation, we are best using classical probability to compute the chance of 4 cards in a 7 card hand being the same, given that 4 are in the deck.

It is important to remember that the probability of selecting a permutation of 7 cards is the same no matter what cards they are. However, we are only concerned with a combination of 4 cards inside those 7 cards that happens to exist.

n C x = n!/(x!(n-x)!) = 7!/(4!3!) = 35
There are 35 ways to select 4 cards that are the same.

P (permutation of 7 cards with 4 the same)
Varies from a high of 2.53 * 10e -6 (if the 4 are picked last) and a low of 2.05 * 10e -6 (if the 4 are picked first). Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the average probability of success is 2.29e -6, and that the distribution of outcome probabilities is approximately normsl and cntered st this value.

p(4 same) = nCx * average P(permutation) = 35 * 2.29e-6 = 8.02e5.
= .0080 %

Yikes, that's small.

To get the number of hands this will happen in, divide 1 by the probability. This is the reciprocal of one success i.e. the minimum number of hands that must be drawn to expect at least one hand with 4 identical cards.

1/8.02e-5 = 12468.82 = 12469.

One can expect a hand containing 4 Archive Traps once in 12,469 hands, if 4 of them are in the deck. That's much more common than once in a million hands.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 16:51 in reply to #465212 on First turn Mill...oh yeah.

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Redirect is a really great card. It's so much more than a counterspell - in fact, it doesn't counter at all, but is more like a MC for spells. Not only can it redirect burn and removal as Puschkin suggested, but enchantments and buffing instants as well. Mana leak is the budget

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 15:03 in reply to #465217 on Creature Challenge: # 1Merfolk

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Oblivion ring can target any permanent, is easily splashable, and is harder to remove as it's an artifact.

How about silence?

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 14:45 in reply to #464967 on Odric's Crusade

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Thank you for a refreshing deck concept. Now I remember why I run so much removal!

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 14:27 as a comment on self destructive behaviour

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I'm going to say, this deck is pretty good. He has a nice Izzet deck going.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 14:08 in reply to #464830 on Civic Saber of Chromanticore

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Oh, and I'm pretty sure Firemane Avenger is female ....

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 14:05 in reply to #465193 on FNM Burn

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Dude, sorry, I meant blaze commando ...

Boros has some ridiculous creatures, like Frontline Medic and Wojek Halberdiers. Check out their standard cards:

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Search/Default.aspx?page=0&action=advanced&mark=+%5B%22Boros%22%5D&format=%7C%5B%22Standard%22%5D

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 14:05 in reply to #465193 on FNM Burn

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C-O-F-F-E-E, coffee is not for me.
It's a drink some people wake up with,
that it makes you nervous is no myth.
Slaves to a coffee cup, they can't
Give Coffee Up!

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 13:59 in reply to #465224 on Budget Decks: Suspendin'

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I don't see it ... but you have a Warhammer 40k deck? Far out!

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 05:26 in reply to #465153 on Budget Decks: Suspendin'

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And that's why Merfolk rock.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 05:24 in reply to #465189 on Creature Challenge: # 1Merfolk

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Nice standard deck.

May I say: Firemane Avenger instead of Warleader's helix. And I prefer Boros Commando over Stormbreath Dragon.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 05:24 as a comment on FNM Burn

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You should see my Simic deck, Theory of Evolution.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 05:10 in reply to #465153 on Budget Decks: Suspendin'

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Northern, I challenge you to make a budget Ninja Deck with one copy of Silent-Blade Oni in it.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 05:09 as a comment on Budget Decks: Suspendin'

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Wait .. now we have glass to hold water? That's a lot of kapusta!

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 04:48 in reply to #464211 on Starter Budget: Elf

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Maybe oblivion ring.

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Posted 16 May 2014 at 04:43 in reply to #464967 on Odric's Crusade

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