suitangi

234 Decks, 764 Comments, 133 Reputation

Here's an interesting link I found...
https://github.com/Dritte/VintageDredge/blob/master/mulliganToBazaar.py

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Posted 06 December 2013 at 00:29 in reply to #417643 on Exsanguicycle

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I'm not really sure how Serum Powder works (my math level isn't there yet) but calculating the probability of a Fluctuator being in your hand might be able to help...

[This is a little math, feel free to skip to the end conclusion where I give the % chances...]
So the odds of getting one particular card in a 60 card deck is 1/60.
Since there are 4 Fluctuators in the deck, the odds of getting it (when you pick one random card) is 4/60, and the odds of NOT getting it is 56/60. After you picked out a card, there are clearly 59 cards left in the deck. So if the card you drew isn't the Fluctuator, the probability of NOT drawing it would be 55/59. And it goes on and on...
Since your opening hand consists of 7 cards, we will find the probability of NOT getting a Fluctuator in 7 cards:

(For those of you that know nCr, this might seem cumbersome, but bear with this "simplified" solution)
Card #1: 56/60 (Chance of card not being Fluctuator)
Card #2: 55/59
Card #3: 54/58
Card #4: 53/57
Card #5: 52/56
Card #6: 51/55
Card #7: 50/54
(56 x 55 x 54 x 53 x 52 x 51 x 50) / (60 x 59 x 58 x 57 x 56 x 55 x 54) = 60.05% chance that it won't be in your hand
100% - 60.05% = 39.95%
So there is a 39.95% probability that Fluctuator will be in your OPENING (Card x7) hand.

After some math calculations....
If you mull down to 3, there is an 83.38% chance that you will get a Fluctuator in your hand!
I don't like mulling below 3, but if you were to mull to 1, there is an 86.50% chance that you have it in your hand.

Now if you want lands to accompany that as well...
The probability of having two land and a Fluctuator in your opening hand is around 52%... I think

[CONCLUSION]
In your opening (7 cards) hand, there is a (about) 39.95% chance of Fluctuator being in your deck.
If you mull down to 3, there is an 83.33% chance that you will get a Fluctuator in your hand!
If you mull down to 1, there is an 86.50% chance that you will get a Fluctuator in your hand!

Disclaimer: I make a lot of math mistakes on a daily basis... this post might very well be wrong...

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Posted 05 December 2013 at 05:14 in reply to #417643 on Exsanguicycle

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Okay, I added 4 cabal therapy in the deck!

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Posted 05 December 2013 at 04:02 in reply to #417496 on Sac: To infinity and beyond

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Thanks for the suggestion!

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Posted 05 December 2013 at 00:04 in reply to #417615 on Sac: To infinity and beyond

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Nice!
I started with Worldwwake :D

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Posted 04 December 2013 at 07:18 in reply to #417360 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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No problem! Counter Magic I'm mostly relying on Muddle the Mixture. I haven't ran into Pithing Needle yet, but if I do, I will most likely sideboard Smelt. Thank you!

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Posted 04 December 2013 at 06:06 in reply to #417545 on Treasury

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The oracle text actually says
" 0: The next 1 damage that would be dealt to Shaman en-Kor this turn is dealt to target creature you control instead."
so yes, I can activate it a ton of times.

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Posted 04 December 2013 at 01:31 in reply to #417503 on [Budget] Infinite Fling

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Thanks for your suggestion!
What cards should I take out and add in?

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Posted 04 December 2013 at 01:01 in reply to #417496 on Sac: To infinity and beyond

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That's pretty cool, how long have you been playing Magic?

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Posted 04 December 2013 at 01:00 in reply to #417360 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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haha lol
what's your favourite colour?

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Posted 04 December 2013 at 00:25 in reply to #416627 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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What about Sublime Archangel instead of Angelic Benediction?

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Posted 03 December 2013 at 22:40 as a comment on Bant Exalted

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I've though about Gravecrawler, but I don't think I have enough zombies out to support that.
Thanks for the suggestion though :D
Also, I couldn't find your Monoblack deck... did you make it private?

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Posted 03 December 2013 at 22:37 in reply to #417417 on Sac: To infinity and beyond

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I'll add Hoard-Smelter Dragon to the sideboard. Thanks!

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Posted 03 December 2013 at 22:36 in reply to #417333 on [Budget] Metal Destruct

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Wow, that's really cool! I've never seen Whirling Dervish before :D
Thanks!

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Posted 03 December 2013 at 22:35 in reply to #417360 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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Thanks! Glad you like it!

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Posted 02 December 2013 at 23:58 in reply to #417207 on [Budget] Kithkin

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Haha, that happens to me sometimes as well :P

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Posted 02 December 2013 at 23:58 in reply to #417236 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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Artful Dodge was originally in there, but was replaced by Aqueous Form.

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Posted 02 December 2013 at 23:57 in reply to #417235 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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Naturalize is one of the best SB cards for green

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Posted 02 December 2013 at 16:30 in reply to #413030 on Yep, Ramp

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Okay, Thanks!

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Posted 02 December 2013 at 15:50 in reply to #417055 on [Budget] Stalked Prey

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No problem!
Glad I can help :)

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Posted 02 December 2013 at 03:10 in reply to #416408 on Best Naya Tokens (You decide)

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