Questions:- Is this deck geared toward 1v1, or multiplayer?- Do you find yourself encountering problems with only 30 lands and 5 rocks (two or which are somewhat expensive rocks)?
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@ HydreigonMuppetMaster: While I do understand what you mean re: Far // Away and removal, I've always thought of that card as a tempo disruptor. I'm ballparking that the average CMC for a creature in Standard is probably about 3-3.5. A fused Far // Away is 5 CMC, so it generally gets you 1-2 CMC ahead (not too overwhelming). But because it's instant speed and flexible, and (as mentioned) a possible card advantage if a token critter is involved, it merits play (I'm a huge fan of flexibility, which is one of the basic tools of risk reduction). TL;DR: You've convinced me - I'd agreed that 3 Far // Aways and 2 Turn // Burns is about right, with one extra of each SB.
Turn // Burn is a problem solver (for creature problems), whereas Far // Away is more of a tempo disruptor. The CMC costs are exactly the same, but I think that Turn // Burn is stronger. Maybe two of each?
Thoughts:1) Ditch Steam Augury. As I mentioned in another post, Steam Augury is no Fact or Fiction. The difference is that your opponent is choosing the pile - and that's huge. You can bet your bottom dollar that there is no way in hell you're going to get that one card that you really, really need. (The Lesson: Any card that you play that lets your opponent choose an outcome is usually bad).2) Ashiok is probably too slow in the format, and really isn't that great a card. While it sounds all sexy to mill you opponent and cast critters for free, it has a lot of down side. For starters, it's effectively a dead draw against control heavy/creature light decks. However, the worst thing about Ashiok is that she relies too much on luck to be effective, in at least three ways: a) On turn one, Ashiok mills three cards, of which (on average) only two are non-land. Even in a creature heavy deck, typically only one of those remaining two cards will be a creature. Thus, only one of the three cards you mill will be "playable" for her second ability on average. Luck Problem #1: 'Will I even get a critter?' b) If Ashiok lives to turn two (which is probably unlikely against a creature heavy or burn deck), then it's a matter of pure chance whether the creature you milled is castable. Odds are that the critter will be small (because most are small). And even if you got very lucky and milled a bomb critter, its CMC would have to be 5 or less (and there are not too many bombs at 5 or less...). A 5 CMC critter would kill Ashiok on turn two (because Ashiok will only have 5 loyalty counters), thus resulting in no card advantage. And if the critter is 6 CMC or more, you'll have to wait yet another turn to activate her second ability (and good luck on that, once your opponent sees what you next turn with Ashiok will be). The creature doesn't even have haste, so it sits there with it's pants down waiting to be picked off before you start rolling with it. Luck Problem #2: 'Getting off a second turn second ability activation is rarely a game changer'. c) Since (by definition) the critter you milled is geared toward supporting your opponent's strategy, it could very well have little use to you. Luck Problem #3: 'If I get a critter, is it actually going to help me?'3) Go with the Stormbreath Dragon or the Ætherling, but not both. Five super expensive creatures is too much in this type of deck (since there is no mana ramp at all...). Note that you'll need 8 mana available to safely cast Ætherling, and you need 7 mana to make Stormbreath Dragon actually worth it. Remember, Control = stabilizing the board state, then protecting a win condition. I'd say two Ætherling's, and use the three open slots for counters (which may just be enough counters to force your opponent to respect counters. I like Izzet Charm [soooo useful] at 2 CMC, and Dissolve at 3 CMC).4) Find some mana ramp. Control decks are mana hungry - always have been, always will be. Now you do have six scy cards (and though scy isn't 'ramp' in the pure sense, it can be considered a mana developer), which is a good thing. Four Magma Jet's might be a smart change here, if you're into the whole scy thang.5) Anger of the Gods is amazing in this type of deck. Make it four, I say.Anyways, my two cents. Great start for a Standard Grixis - keep developing!
Steam Augury is no Fact or Fiction, believe me. The fact (se whut I did thar?) that you cannot choose which pile to grab is a huge disadvantage (because there is no way in hell you're going to get that one card that you really, really need...)
Note: My comment regarding Turn//Burn was in the context of Standard, of course. Now, admittedly, a fused Turn//Burn is a very expensive spot removal tool, but the fact that it is flexible via it's instant speed and it's low 'unfused' cost somewhat makes up for that in the format. And unless the problem creature is flat out untargetable (almost unheard of in Standard - really only Simic Charm, and the very rare Glaring Spotlight or Domri Rade's ultimate), then there really isn't a creature that survives it. Given it's cost, having two main deck is probably about right, especially if you have a fetch or recursion dynamic that can access it from the library and/or graveyard.
Agreed - Im always amazed at how many problems Turn//Burn solves. Try it out - you'll learn to love it.
Great stuff! I'm a big fan of Hexproof/Shroud. Would love to see your sideboard ideas, to get around W/R/B board sweepers. You kept it small and fast, so that will help against the mid-game "big board clear".