Modern RDW

This is an excellent question and the answer is a big step in a player's journey from novice to intermediate or expert play. The short version of the answer is magic is actually a game of development and sacrifice, and fetch lands are one of the best sets of cards ever made, even taking away their ability to fix mana problems.

You started to answer your own question actually. The main point is that you pull lands out in the early and middle game so that by the endgame you won't be topdecking lands, which loses you the game. Pulling 2 fetch lands in the opening reduces the deck's lands by 4, dropping the stats on drawing lands by a significant amount. If you go first with a deck with 21 lands (pretty standard) and have 5 non-lands and 2 fetch lands, and draw a non-land on your second turn, the math on you drawing a land turn 3 is 17/52 or around 33%. If you draw a non-fetch land on turn 2, the math is 16/52 or 31%. If you draw a fetch land turn 2, the math is 15/52 or 29%.

This reduction in odds is drastically more important than the 2-3 life early and the total 5ish life you will lose by running the fetch lands. If running them gives you 1 non-land card on a draw in the whole game, which statistically it will consistently, then the trade in life is more than worth it. Think of it this way, you are paying <6 life to have the ability to not lose the game by running out of cards.

It's also important to understand that your life total isn't an extremely important factor in the game, which is counterintuitive to most non-competitive players. Firstly, not all decks win by reducing life to 0. Secondly, the concept of reducing life to zero is only achieved through one of 3 ways, all of which can be more easily countered by you having higher card advantage than higher life total.

The first way is the agro way, or attacking with creatures. This requires that the attacking player have control of the board state, meaning he has a way to attack every turn, deal damage, and prevent you from attacking in the same turn cycle. Again, the easiest way to gain control of the board state is with card advantage. If you have more cards than opponent, the math is on your side to have a bigger creature or have a kill card or what have you to gain the board state.

The second way is through a combo or control mechanic that deals damage more slowly than an OTK. The only way to beat this type is to either make your win condition work more quickly than your opponent's win condition or dismantle the opponent's mechanic. Both of which are achieved through card advantage.

The third way is through burn, which requires card advantage to win. Burn mechanics achieve this through fewer lands/search lands, and cards like grim lavamancer that utilize resources for greater card advantage. Again, you beat this mechanic by having more material to throw at the opponent.


Another important concept to understand here is the mana curve and how it shapes the land content of your deck. There are 2 measures you need to take into account when planning a mana curve, the operational curve and the complete curve.

The operational curve is the lowest land value at which your deck can operate, the complete curve is the max amount of lands you want after which any other land drawn is a waste. The lower both curves are, the better your deck is. This centers around the concept that magic is a race for development and completion of a win condition, whatever that condition may be (combo, creatures etc).

Normally, a good deck will have an operational curve of 2 and a complete curve of 4 or 5. Anything higher and you are wasting time and will statistically lose to someone that is running that sort of curve.

For these reasons, cards like terramorphic expanse and evolving wilds aren't worth the paper on which they are printed because they deny you the use of the turn on which you play them. If you actually need the mana they would produce for the turn you would be better off with any land that can tap for mana than the search mechanic. And if you don't need the mana, its a dead draw anyway.

I know this will seem counterintuitive and possibly condescending, but I assure you I'm just trying to explain some of the highest level of play of this game. If you can assimilate this type of strategy into your play you will most definitely level up.

On a side note, this particular deck isn't very good and I wouldn't try and make it work.

Wow, that was quite long, but very informative. Up until the end though I was constantly thinking "Why not Evolving wilds instead" And it just occurred to me, that has lands enter tapped. Oops. But I really enjoyed the math in the second paragraph, because I never really thought through the land top decking statistics.